"What is the best estimate value a model can predict?" and "What is the associated confidence?" To check the robustness of the research results, we propose a general methodology for uncertainty assessment that is applicable to the geophysical systems involved in CO2 storage, and then apply this to selected simulation models from the technical work packages (WP2-5).
Participants: BRGM, PHIMECA, TNO
Subsurface systems such as CO2 stores, including their overburden, are ‘poorly defined’. As a consequence, assessing the uncertainty in their future performance is quite subjective, especially early in a storage site’s operational life. Ultimately, however, when it is time for the injection operator to transfer the liability of the site to the authorities, the latter should have sufficient ‘objective confidence’ on the site’s residual risk. A framework is proposed to render such assessments gradually less subjective over the operational life time of the CO2 store, in order to achieve ‘objective confidence’ at the time of scheduled liability transfer. The scientific and technical issues tackled by ULTimateCO2 introduce major challenges for appropriately treating uncertainties, due to the broad range of spatial scales, temporal scales, physical phenomena, variety and scarcity of data, etc.
The main objective of this work package is to provide a general methodology for uncertainty assessment that is applicable to the geophysical systems involved for CO2 storage and to implement application examples. A state-of-the-art of norms and uncertainty assessment approaches will be first provided while some key points, such as the modelling of spatially random parameters and the account for epistemic uncertainty, will be investigated (Task 6.1). The implementation of the proposed framework will be addressed in Task 6.2 in close connection with the work packages 2-5. For this purpose, simulation models will be selected in each WP, for which a sensitivity and uncertainty assessment will be carried out.
- Task 6.1 Uncertainty methodology: state-of-the-art and adaptation to geosystems
- Task 6.2 Uncertainty assessment: implementation
Dernière mise à jour le 12.05.2014